Fed and ECB decisions fall a day apart for a Euro under 1.12

The headline indicates that Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy decisions are scheduled a day apart, with the euro trading below 1.12 against the US dollar. The central transmission channel is relative monetary policy: the timing and expected direction of each bank's rate decision shape the interest rate differential between the dollar and the euro, which in turn drives currency flows. Euro-denominated assets and EUR/USD itself are most directly exposed, as any divergence between Fed and ECB guidance would reprice expected yield spreads at the front end of both curves. The ECB decision is the immediate catalyst for traders to watch, since its forward guidance on rates relative to Fed expectations will determine whether the pair's move below 1.12 extends or reverses.

The Euro (EUR) is the currency of 20 European Union member states. Major EUR movers include ECB Governing Council decisions, Eurozone CPI prints, Bund/BTP spread events, and political risk from France, Germany and Italy.

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