Gold holds above $4,000 as USD bulls await FOMC decision

Gold is holding above the $4,000 per ounce level while US dollar bulls position ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision, leaving the precious metal in a holding pattern rather than a clear directional move. The core transmission channel is the real rate differential: a firmer dollar and expectations of a hawkish FOMC stance raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, creating pressure on gold, while the $4,000 threshold has acted as a psychological support that has so far absorbed selling. Gold is the most exposed asset to any shift in Fed rate expectations, with dollar-denominated pricing meaning that a stronger greenback tends to weigh on the metal in direct, inverse fashion. Traders will focus on the FOMC policy statement and the subsequent press conference for guidance on the pace of future cuts or holds, alongside the dot plot of rate projections, as any revision to the expected path of real yields would likely determine whether gold breaks below or extends above its current range.

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