Gold slips near $4,010 as traders await Fed decision, Iran diplomacy offers hope

Gold slipped toward the $4,010 level as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, while diplomatic progress involving Iran eased some geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting bullion. The primary transmission channel runs through real rates and the dollar: a firm Fed stance or hawkish guidance lifts the dollar and real yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and pulling prices lower. Iran diplomacy operates through the safe-haven channel, since reduced Middle East tension diminishes demand for gold as a hedge against escalation and supply shocks in oil markets. Gold and the US dollar are the most directly exposed assets, with the Fed decision and accompanying press conference likely to set the near-term direction for both. Traders will watch the Fed's rate statement and the chair's tone on the inflation outlook, alongside any movement in US 10-year Treasury real yields, as the key signals for whether bullion's recent pullback extends.

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