ISRAEL'S CHANNEL 12 POLL: THE "EISENKOT BLOC" IS LEADING WITH 52 SEATS, WHILE THE "NETANYAHU BLOC" HAS 50. THE ARAB PARTIES RECEIVED 18 SEATS.

An Israeli Channel 12 opinion poll shows the opposition-aligned "Eisenkot Bloc" leading with 52 seats, ahead of the "Netanyahu Bloc" at 50, with Arab parties polling at 18 seats. Because the headline reflects a single poll rather than an election result, the transmission to markets runs mainly through political risk premia: a narrow shift in coalition arithmetic raises expectations of policy reversals on judicial reform, fiscal spending, and security budgets, which can widen Israeli sovereign spreads and weigh on the shekel through reduced foreign appetite for local-currency assets. The most exposed instruments are Israeli government bonds, particularly longer-dated shekel and dollar-denominated issues, along with Tel Aviv-listed banks and defense-linked equities that are sensitive to budget priorities. Traders will focus on the final seat distribution once the election is held and on whether the 18 Arab-party seats prove pivotal in forming a government, since that outcome determines whether the bloc arithmetic translates into a stable majority.

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