Fed decision less than an hour away, as inflation keeps pressure on Warsh — live

A Federal Reserve policy decision was reported to be less than an hour away, with the headline framing persistent inflation as a source of pressure on Kevin Warsh. The transmission mechanism runs primarily through the rate differential channel: sticky inflation constrains the Fed's room to ease, which keeps expected policy rates elevated relative to other major central banks and supports demand for dollar-denominated assets. Any signal that the Committee will hold rates higher for longer tends to lift the dollar broadly, with the greatest sensitivity in front-end Treasury yields and dollar pairs against currencies whose central banks are closer to cutting. Traders will be watching the accompanying statement and the chair's press conference for changes in the language on inflation and the balance of risks, along with the dot plot's projected path for the policy rate. The next concrete catalyst is the scheduled release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which will show whether the inflation trend cited in the headline is still running above target.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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