Rupee closes weaker at 95.22 as traders await US Fed decision, oil prices rise

The Indian rupee closed weaker at 95.22 against the US dollar, with currency traders positioning ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision while crude oil prices advanced. The rupee's depreciation reflects a combination of dollar strength tied to expectations of Fed policy and the higher import bill that rising oil prices impose on a major energy importer like India. Through the rate differential channel, a hawkish or cautious Fed stance tends to keep US yields elevated and supports the dollar against emerging-market currencies, while dearer crude widens India's current account deficit and increases demand for dollars to settle energy purchases. The USD and oil are the most directly exposed assets, with the rupee and Indian rate-sensitive assets facing secondary pressure from both channels. The key event for traders to watch is the Fed's post-meeting statement and the press conference that follows, as guidance on the path of interest rates will determine whether dollar strength persists and whether the rupee's slide extends further.

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