BOE SURVEY SAYS NO EVIDENCE OF INFLATION-PREMIUM IN PAY AWARDS; NO EVIDENCE OF INFLATION-PREMIUM IN PAY AWARDS

The Bank of England's survey, as summarized in the headline, found no evidence that pay awards are carrying an inflation premium, meaning wage settlements are not being systematically set above expected price growth. This matters for the policy channel: if wage-setting is not feeding back into inflation expectations, the case for keeping Bank Rate restrictive on second-round effects weakens, which lowers the expected path of policy rates and compresses the rate differential that supports sterling. Gilts, particularly the front end where rate-cut pricing is most sensitive, and sterling crosses are the most directly exposed, as a dovish repricing would typically steepen the curve and pressure GBP against currencies whose central banks are holding higher. The next catalyst to watch is the UK labour market release from the ONS, where regular pay growth and the private-sector component will show whether the survey's findings are reflected in realized wage data.

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