BOJ QUARTERLY OUTLOOK REPORT: BOARD FY26 MEDIAN CORE CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) FORECAST +2.5% VS. +2.5% IN JULY

The Bank of Japan's quarterly outlook report shows its board holding its fiscal 2026 median forecast for core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) unchanged at +2.5%, matching the July projection. The unchanged inflation path signals that policymakers see no new reason to revise their assessment of underlying price pressures, which keeps the policy trajectory anchored and limits near-term repricing of Japanese rate expectations. Because yen valuation is driven heavily by the interest rate differential against the United States, a stable BOJ inflation outlook tends to leave the yen sensitive to the relative path of Federal Reserve policy, with USD/JPY the most directly exposed pair. Traders will focus on Japan's national core CPI release and any subsequent BOJ commentary on whether the 2% target is being sustainably met, since a surprise in either would shift expectations for the timing of further tightening.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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