Lagarde race starts at the after in Bce, candidatures by 6 November

The European Central Bank has opened the process to succeed Christine Lagarde as president, with candidate nominations due by 6 November, according to the headline from Ansa. The transmission mechanism here runs through policy credibility and the expected path of euro-area rates: leadership transitions at the ECB can shift market views on how aggressively the Governing Council will ease or tighten, and therefore affect the rate differential that underpins euro valuations. The euro and euro-area sovereign bonds, particularly the short-to-medium end of the curve, are most directly exposed, since perceptions of a more dovish or hawkish successor feed into forward rate pricing. Traders should watch the formal list of candidates once nominations close on 6 November, as the identities and stated policy leanings of those put forward will be the first concrete signal for repricing ECB expectations.

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