Bank of England set for ‘further interest rate hikes’ as businesses boost jobs

The Bank of England is reported to be on course for further interest rate hikes, with the signal drawn from evidence that businesses are increasing hiring. The transmission mechanism runs through labour market tightness: firms adding jobs supports wage growth and household incomes, which feeds into persistent services inflation and raises the probability that the Monetary Policy Committee keeps policy restrictive for longer. Sterling and short-dated gilts are the most directly exposed, as markets reprice the expected path of Bank Rate and the rate differential against other major central banks. Sterling could firm against currencies where easing expectations are stronger, while the front end of the gilt curve is likely to be most sensitive to shifts in terminal rate pricing. The next concrete catalyst for traders is the UK labour market release from the Office for National Statistics, where wage growth and vacancy data will show whether the hiring signal is translating into the pay pressures the Bank is focused on.

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