ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026

The European Central Bank's wage tracker indicates that negotiated wage growth in the first three quarters of 2027 is expected to be slightly higher than the full-year rate recorded for 2026. The development matters for the policy outlook because wage dynamics feed directly into services inflation and unit labour costs, which the ECB weighs heavily when judging whether price pressures are durable. A firmer wage path would reduce the likelihood that disinflation runs smoothly toward the 2 percent target, supporting the case for keeping policy rates higher for longer and pushing up euro-area rate expectations through the front end of the curve. Euro-denominated short-dated government bonds and money-market rate expectations are the most directly exposed, while the euro itself may firm against currencies of economies with more dovish central banks. Traders should watch the next Eurostat flash HICP release and the ECB's subsequent policy meeting, where staff projections for services inflation will indicate whether this wage signal is being incorporated into the forward inflation path.

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