BOE: GDP GROWTH LIKELY TO FALL BACK IN COMING QUARTERS

The Bank of England has signalled that UK GDP growth is likely to slow in the coming quarters, a judgment that points to a softer domestic activity outlook than recent readings may have implied. The most direct transmission channel runs through the policy rate path: a weaker growth profile reduces the pressure on the Bank to keep rates restrictive, which can pull forward expectations for monetary easing and compress short-end gilt yields relative to their current pricing. Sterling is exposed through rate differentials, since a dovish repricing relative to the Federal Reserve or the ECB would tend to weigh on the pound, while UK rate-sensitive equities such as housebuilders, domestic cyclicals and banks with large net interest income exposure would face a reassessment of their earnings sensitivity. Traders will focus on the next UK monthly GDP release from the Office for National Statistics and the subsequent Monetary Policy Report and rate decision, as these will test whether the Bank's growth downgrade is being confirmed by hard activity data.

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