ECB'S MOULIN SAYS FRENCH BUDGET UNCERTAINTY DRIVES UP BOND YIELDS.

ECB Vice President Boris Vujčić... no, the headline attributes the remarks to ECB official Olivier Moulin's line of thinking on French fiscal policy: that uncertainty over the French budget is pushing up government bond yields. The transmission mechanism runs through the sovereign risk premium: when fiscal trajectories become harder to forecast, investors demand higher compensation for holding French debt, widening the spread between French OATs and German Bunds. Because the ECB transmits policy through a single rate across the euro area, persistent divergence in peripheral and core sovereign spreads complicates the monetary transmission process and can tighten financial conditions unevenly across member states. French government bonds and the OAT-Bund spread are the most directly exposed, with knock-on pressure on other higher-spread euro sovereigns and on euro-denominated financial credit with heavy French sovereign holdings. Traders should watch the next French budget negotiations and parliamentary votes, along with the ECB's commentary at its upcoming policy meeting, for any signal that fiscal risk is being priced into the policy outlook.

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