ECB'S ZIGMAN SAYS `RATHER BIG CHANCE' RATES WILL BE RAISED IN DEC.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel's counterpart on the ECB Governing Council, Robert Holzmann, is not the speaker here; the headline attributes to Zigman, which the source identifies as an ECB official stating there is a "rather big chance" that interest rates will be raised in December. The comment shifts the policy outlook by signaling that a further tightening step is a live possibility rather than a remote one, which directly affects the euro area's short-end yield curve. The primary transmission channel is the rate differential: a higher expected path for ECB deposit rates tends to lift euro overnight index swap and Bund short-maturity yields, which can support the euro against currencies whose central banks are seen as on hold or easing. Euro-denominated front-end bonds, euro money-market futures and the EUR crosses against the dollar and yen are the most directly exposed, while peripheral sovereign spreads can widen if higher rates are read as tightening financial conditions for indebted members. The next catalyst to watch is the flash euro-area HICP inflation release for the coming month, since a print that confirms persistent services inflation would validate the hawkish

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