Analysts expect one more BoE rate hike, likely Feb, after 4% move

Analysts surveyed in the reported coverage expect the Bank of England to deliver one more interest rate increase, likely in February, following a cumulative move of 4 percent. The transmission runs primarily through the rate differential channel: a further tightening would widen sterling's yield advantage over peers and attract carry-seeking capital, while also reinforcing expectations that UK policy rates will peak above current market-implied levels. Short-sterling and SONIA futures, along with the front end of the gilt curve, are the most directly exposed, since their pricing hinges on the timing and size of the next move. Sterling crosses such as GBP/USD and GBP/EUR would also be sensitive to any shift in the perceived terminal rate. The next catalyst traders will watch is the UK inflation release, as a upside surprise to services inflation would strengthen the case for the February move and could push further repricing across sterling rates and FX.

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