Trump says renewed Iran strikes ‘highly unlikely’ if talks progress but warns he could still strike

President Donald Trump said renewed strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" if ongoing talks make progress, while cautioning that he retains the option to strike again. The statement signals a conditional de-escalation path that markets typically price through the geopolitical risk premium, which feeds into oil and energy as a supply-risk channel and into safe-haven demand for gold, the dollar, and Treasuries. Crude oil and Gulf-linked energy equities are the most directly exposed, since any perceived shift in the probability of Iranian supply disruption or regional conflict moves Brent and WTI quickly, while defense stocks and shipping and insurance names tied to Strait of Hormuz transit risk are also sensitive. Traders should watch the next scheduled round of US-Iran talks and any official confirmation of diplomatic milestones, as well as Brent crude's reaction to weekly EIA inventory data, to gauge whether the conditional rhetoric is translating into a sustained reduction in risk premia.

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