EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground above 1.1150, while retaining bearish bias below 100-day SMA

EUR/USD is trading higher above the 1.1150 level, but the pair remains below its 100-day simple moving average, which keeps the technical picture tilted toward the bears. The move reflects a modest recovery in the euro against the dollar rather than a confirmed trend reversal, as the 100-day average is a widely watched intermediate-term trend gauge that has capped rallies. The transmission channel here is primarily relative rate expectations and dollar positioning: a firmer euro typically signals narrowing expectations for the policy divergence that has supported the greenback, so the pair is most sensitive to shifts in Federal Reserve versus European Central Bank rate pricing. Both the euro and the dollar are directly exposed, with the euro-side move hinging on whether it can sustain a close above the moving average. Traders will watch the next eurozone and U.S. inflation prints and central bank commentary for confirmation of whether rate-differential expectations are genuinely changing.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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