A 50-basis point December rate hike now looks to be on the table after CPI data

Markets are now pricing a possible 50-basis-point rate hike at the December policy meeting following a CPI print, a larger move than the 25-basis-point increment that had been the base case. The transmission channel runs through inflation repricing: a hotter-than-expected CPI reading raises the probability that policymakers must tighten faster to anchor inflation expectations, lifting the expected path of short-term rates. Front-end Treasuries and rate-sensitive assets, including two-year yields and fed funds futures, are most directly exposed, while the dollar typically strengthens on wider rate differentials. Equities with long-duration cash flows, such as growth and technology names, face valuation pressure as discount rates rise. The next catalyst traders will watch is the upcoming PCE inflation release and the subsequent Fed speeches, which will test whether the CPI signal is persistent enough to justify a larger move.

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