ECB'S NAGEL SAYS FALL IN ENERGY PRICES SINCE US MIDTERMS IS POSITIVE NEWS.

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that the decline in energy prices since the US midterm elections is a positive development for the euro area economy. The remark points to an easing of imported energy costs feeding into headline inflation, which would reduce the pressure on the European Central Bank to keep policy restrictive for longer. The primary transmission channel is inflation repricing: lower energy input costs ease the path of headline and eventually core inflation, shifting rate expectations and the euro's rate differential against the dollar. Euro area government bonds, particularly rate-sensitive sovereign curves, and energy-intensive European equities are the most exposed to any repricing of the ECB policy path. Traders will watch the next euro area flash HICP inflation release and the ECB's upcoming policy communication for confirmation of whether the energy-driven disinflation is feeding through to the central bank's projections.

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