ECB'S VUJCIC: MAY STILL SEE FURTHER PRICE PRESSURES WITH LAG

ECB policymaker Vujcic said the central bank may still see further price pressures emerging with a lag, signalling that inflation risks have not fully dissipated despite recent disinflation. The comment points to a transmission mechanism operating through inflation repricing: if markets come to believe the ECB will hold policy restrictive for longer, the front end of the euro area yield curve tends to reprice higher, supporting the euro through rate differentials. Euro-denominated short-dated government bonds and rate-sensitive instruments such as Bund and OAT futures are most directly exposed, as are euro-area swap rates that are sensitive to shifts in expected policy paths. The next catalyst for traders to watch is the flash euro area HICP release, where any upside surprise in core services inflation would test whether lagged price pressures are showing up in the data.

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