Heads up: UK September GDP in focus but will weak growth really stop the BOE from hiking again?

Attention is turning to UK September GDP, with the question being whether a softer growth print would be enough to deter the Bank of England from another rate hike. The transmission channel runs through the policy-rate path: a weak GDP reading would reduce the expected terminal rate and could pull front-end gilt yields lower, while sticky inflation would argue for keeping rates elevated despite slowing activity. Short-dated sterling rate expectations and gilt curves are the most directly exposed, as repricing of BOE hike odds feeds quickly into two-year yields and the pound against the dollar and euro. Traders will be watching the monthly GDP figure alongside the accompanying breakdown of services and production output, since a sharp slowdown concentrated in consumer-facing sectors would carry different implications for inflation persistence than a broad-based contraction.

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