UK Q3 GDP meets estimates as resilient growth gives BOE more room to tackle inflation

UK third-quarter GDP came in line with consensus forecasts, with the economy showing resilience that the headline frames as giving the Bank of England greater scope to address inflation. The transmission mechanism runs through the interest rate channel: stronger-than-feared activity reduces the risk of a sharp growth slowdown forcing an early pivot to easing, which supports the case for keeping policy rates restrictive for longer and sustains the UK rates curve. Sterling and short-dated gilts are the most directly exposed, since shifts in expected BoE policy paths feed quickly into two-year yields and the pound's rate differential against peers. Traders should watch the next UK CPI release and the BoE's subsequent rate decision, as inflation persistence will determine whether the growth backdrop translates into a firmer hawkish stance.

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