UK September GDP beats expectations as resilient growth keeps BOE December rate hike on track

UK GDP for September came in above consensus expectations, with the headline reading signalling more resilient economic activity than forecasters had penciled in. The stronger data reinforces the market's view that the Bank of England retains room to tighten policy, keeping a December rate hike firmly in play. The transmission runs through the rate differential and inflation repricing channels: firmer growth lifts expectations for the policy rate path, which supports sterling against lower-yielding peers and pushes gilt yields higher at the front end of the curve. Short-dated gilts and sterling crosses are most directly exposed, while interest-rate-sensitive domestic equities face a headwind from higher discount rates. The next catalyst traders will watch is the UK CPI release, since inflation persistence is the variable that will determine whether the BOE follows through on a December move.

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