ECB’s Nagel: Highly Probable' ECB Will Have To Act Again - Now Approaching The Adverse Scenario Of The September Projections - So Far, The Economy Has Proved Resilient; Euro Area Grew By 0.4% In Q3 - Short-Term Inflation Expectations Have Risen, Underlying Inflation Remains Elevated

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said it is highly probable the ECB will need to act again, noting that the euro area economy is approaching the adverse scenario outlined in the September staff projections despite having proved resilient, with the bloc growing 0.4% in the third quarter. The remarks signal that policymakers see the risk of further easing as rising, which feeds into euro rate expectations through the front end of the curve and tends to narrow the rate differential against higher-yielding counterparts, pressuring the euro. Euro-denominated sovereign bonds and short-dated ECB-sensitive instruments are most directly exposed, while European equities with domestic cyclical exposure may face competing pressure from the growth data that cushions the downside. Traders will watch the next euro area flash HICP inflation release and the ECB's upcoming policy meeting, where any shift in the balance between the baseline and adverse scenarios will be read for the pace of expected cuts.

The Euro (EUR) is the currency of 20 European Union member states. Major EUR movers include ECB Governing Council decisions, Eurozone CPI prints, Bund/BTP spread events, and political risk from France, Germany and Italy.

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