Will There Be a Stock Market Crash Under President Donald Trump? One Forecasting Tool With 155 Years of History in Its Sails Offers an Answer.

A historical forecasting tool with a 155-year track record, known as the "Presidential Cycle Theory," suggests U.S. stock market performance may weaken in the third year of a presidential term, raising questions about S&P 500 returns under a potential second Trump administration. The theory implies that equities often peak in the second year due to pre-election stimulus, followed by tighter monetary policy or reduced fiscal momentum, affecting risk assets like the S&P 500 and Trump-linked securities. Market transmission occurs through expectations of fiscal tightening, regulatory shifts, and rate policy divergence depending on the administration’s economic agenda. Stocks most exposed include financials, industrials, and Trump-affiliated SPACs or media ventures, which could face heightened volatility amid policy uncertainty. Traders will watch the next CPI release and Fed commentary for signals on whether inflation dynamics reinforce or offset historical cyclical patterns.

HIGH-impact news is typically a market-moving event with multi-pip or multi-percent intraday reactions. Examples include central bank rate decisions, major CPI/NFP releases, geopolitical shocks, mega-cap earnings beats/misses, and regulatory announcements. Traders typically position-reduce or hedge ahead of scheduled HIGH-impact events, and follow the wire in real time to react to unscheduled ones (war headlines, central-bank emergency statements, surprise corporate actions). The Trading News Terminal squawk box reads every HIGH-impact headline aloud the moment it hits the wire — so active traders don't have to stare at the feed.

Active traders typically follow a three-step workflow when a market-moving headline hits the wire: (1) read the headline on the terminal or hear it on the squawk box; (2) assess whether the news is already priced in (by checking intraday price action in the seconds before) or whether it's genuinely new information; (3) act — either entering a breakout position, fading an overreaction, or tightening stops on existing trades. Trading News Terminal's Pro plan delivers wire-grade headlines within seconds of the source, with automatic audio squawk on every HIGH-impact event, so the read-assess-act cycle never waits on a refresh button.