US stock futures muted as oil holds near April highs ahead of Fed decision

US stock futures traded little changed as crude oil held near its highest levels since April, with traders positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. Elevated oil prices feed into headline inflation expectations, which complicates the rate outlook: persistent energy-driven price pressure reduces the likelihood of near-term easing and keeps the dollar supported through rate-differential expectations. Nasdaq 100 futures are most sensitive to this channel because long-duration growth equities are valued on discounted future cash flows, so any upward repricing of real yields weighs disproportionately on the index. Mega-cap names such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Tesla carry that duration exposure, and Tesla additionally faces sensitivity to consumer financing costs and energy-price rotation. The next concrete catalyst is the Fed's rate statement and the accompanying press conference, where traders will parse whether officials characterize energy-driven inflation as transitory or as a reason to hold policy restrictive for longer.

The US Dollar (USD) is the world's primary reserve currency and the base for most forex majors. Headlines about Federal Reserve policy, US macro data (CPI, NFP, GDP), and Treasury yield shifts typically drive USD pair direction within seconds of release.

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