TRADERS ADD TO BOE RATE BETS, SEE 35% CHANCE OF A HIKE IN DEC.

Traders have increased their wagers on Bank of England rate increases, with pricing now implying roughly a 35% probability of a hike at the December meeting. The repricing reflects a shift in expectations for policy tightening, transmitted primarily through the rate differential channel, where higher expected UK short-term rates lift sterling relative to peers whose central banks are seen as holding or easing. Short-dated gilts and sterling-denominated money market instruments are most directly exposed, as their yields move first to reflect changes in the policy path, while the pound is sensitive to shifts in relative rate expectations. The next catalyst to watch is the UK consumer price index release, since inflation prints ahead of the December decision will determine whether the current hike probability rises or fades.

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