Economic calendar: Inflation data; later, it's several Fed speakers

The economic calendar for the session features a key inflation release followed by a slate of Federal Reserve speakers later in the day, according to MarketWatch's preview. Consumer price inflation data is the primary catalyst, with the transmission running through inflation repricing: a hotter-than-expected CPI print would push up expectations for a higher policy rate path, lifting Treasury yields and compressing the rate differential that supports risk assets. Rate-sensitive segments such as long-duration Treasuries, growth equities, and small caps would be most exposed to a repricing of this kind, while the dollar could firm on yield support. The subsequent Fed commentary matters because officials' remarks on whether inflation is sustainably returning to target can either validate or reverse the move in front-end yields. Traders should watch the core CPI monthly change against consensus and any shift in the market-implied probability of the next policy move in fed funds futures immediately after the speakers begin.

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